Can the Red-Hot United States Actually Win the World Cup?

The content factory that is this 2026 FIFA World Cup has continued to hum at unprecedented efficiency as the tournament enters the final week of group stage play. It has generated a list of international talking points the likes of which we never could have anticipated. Among them, people are amazingly, unironically asking…

Can the United States Men’s National Team win the World Cup?

Now, this country is globally elite at a lot fewer things than it used to be, but no nation on Earth can hold a candle to our ability to turn a couple of positive developments into fully enriched, weapons-grade optimism.

It’s true that the USMNT is off to its best World Cup start in almost a century, following up its 4-1 dismantling of Paraguay with a relatively comfortable 2-0 win against Australia in the second group stage contest. We are officially through to the knockout rounds – as group winners, no less – with a whole game to spare. That in itself is no minor accomplishment.

The aftermath of those wins has been almost as enjoyable as the wins themselves. Soccer-agnostic casuals in the U.S. have clearly taken notice, while fans of more established footballing nations have taken to social media to jokingly lament how Argentine coach Mauricio Pochettino might have finally taught the most bombastic and successful sporting nation on the planet how to actually play this game.

But no. If we can speak seriously for a moment, we are nowhere near the point at which this national team belongs in World Cup winner conversations. Beating Paraguay and Australia, while certainly not guaranteed, was on par with where the U.S. has stacked up internationally in recent years. In fact, we met – and defeated – both nations in international friendlies in 2025.

Until the U.S. proves it can defeat the teams in the top tier of international soccer – the Frances, the Spains, the Argentinas, etc. – it has no business being labeled a true contender for the trophy. Traditionally, running into the likes of those teams in the knockout rounds has marked the end of the road for the U.S. As American goalkeeping legend Tim Howard said on the Unfiltered Soccer podcast this week, “The U.S. will have to play the greatest game they’ve ever played [four] times in a row” to win the tournament. It’s just not realistic. 

Now, if the knockout stage bracket happens to fall in an exceptionally favorable way, or if there are upsets along the USMNT’s route, perhaps a berth in the semifinals could be in play. Such a result would be, by far, the greatest achievement for a U.S. team in the modern era. Even a quarterfinal appearance would resonate as a massive success. But we’re still a couple weeks out from that.

At time of writing, Mexico, Germany, Argentina, France, and Norway have all joined the U.S. as early entrants into the Round of 32, with England, Portugal, Brazil, the Netherlands, and Spain also among those in good position to advance. 

We may also be witnessing the early stages of perhaps the most thrilling Golden Boot (tournament’s top scorer) race in memory. It’s led, remarkably, by Lionel Messi, who turned 39 on Wednesday. (¡Feliz Cumple, Leo!) The Argentine captain has scored all five of his nation’s goals through two games. Fellow superstar Kylian Mbappé of France and Erling Haaland of Norway are right on Messi’s tail with four goals. And lest we ever forget about the yin to Messi’s yang, there’s also Portugal’s Cristiano Rolando, who scored a pair of vintage goals against an overmatched Uzbekistan on Match Day 2. 

The biggest stars at this tournament have certainly not disappointed us yet.

While MLS is on break, The Verde Report has its eye on World Cup action.

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